The Forecast for the Fulshear/Katy Real Estate MarketIt is the start of the New Year, so I thought it would be helpful to provide my forecast for 2018. My crystal ball is a bit cloudy, so better for me to base predictions on more reliable trend lines that are below.
Like anything, it is how you look at the data. National results do not necessarily translate to Houston. In fact, Houston is somewhat contrarian since our economy is linked to energy more so than any other region in the nation. Our local Fulshear/Katy market is even more closely linked to the health of the oil and gas industry, since we are in the backyard of the energy capital of the world. The charts below are global to the Houston area and thus not specific to our market. Unfortunately, our local market results will begin the year trending a bit more negatively; resulting in more Active Listings, longer Days On Market and lesser Sales Activity. That is, until the energy sector continues to recover, then the reverse will be true.
The good news is that all the trend lines indicate that 2018 will be a better year than 2017. The Tax Cut that was recently passed will spur the economy. Yet, I’m not quite sure what the impact will be regarding the $10,000 cap on deductions for property and sales taxes. It won’t affect the lower
and mid-range properties, but I’m not sure about the higher priced homes. However, most Buyers purchase their primary residence on emotion and not on tax benefits. So, I don’t foresee this as a significant issue.
As mentioned, the most important factor affecting our market will be the price of oil and gas.If oil stabilizes above $60 per barrel or higher, our market will do very well. The stock market is another concern. How high can it go is the definitive question? Experts say higher. It will adjust at some point, but as long as there is not a burst or a huge
correction, then we’ll be fine. North Korea will be the biggest unknown. Will Rocket Man, Kim Jung Un, dismantle his nuclear
weapons; ones North Korea has committed to building for over a quarter century? If not, do we do a pre-emptive strike? Will this be a repeat of the Days of October and the Cuban missile crises? Who knows, and who knows what the impact will be. Yet, every year has uncertainty. This year will be no different.
My prediction? The year will start off reasonably good and will get even better as we approach Spring. The year will end as one of the best in the last several years.
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