IT WAS A CHALLENGING MARKET for almost all of 2018 and that continued into January of this year. However, February’s promising results provided optimism and March continued the favorable upward trend. So, if two months is a trend, then hopefully, this is the beginning for what may be a much better 2019.
March Results For Zip Code 77441:
Although Active Listings rose in March, it was statistically irrelevant and a modest increase would be expected anyway. However, there was plenty of good news that was substantial. Homes in Pending Status increased by more than 35% and the number of homes that Sold increased nearly 20%. This is even more impressive, as these increases were compounded by the very good results in February. Importantly too, the “Months of Supply” is currently at a level that is deemed to be a market “in balance”; one which is neither a Buyers or a Sellers.
The above is all very good news. However, the underlying difficulty for Sellers still rests with the competition from an abundance of New Homes. If given the choice, most Buyers prefer to purchase New. And, they do just that; making it a challenge for the Resales. Unfortunately, Sellers here in our small market area, face more competition from New homes than most any other area in all of Houston, the 3rd largest city in the nation.
As a comparison, in March The Woodlands had a total of 589 homes on the market and just 11.8% were New. Of the (123) that Sold, only 7.3% were New. Sugarland had similar results. There were (682) Active Listings and 8.9% were New. There were (141) homes that Sold, yet just 9.2% were New. However, in our Zip Code, there were 248 Active Listings and a whopping 42% were New. Of the (48) that Sold in March, 52% were New. So, little wonder why Sellers here feel the impact of the fierce competition from New Homes.
March results by Community
Weston Lakes:
The market here is analogous from waking up from a deep sleep. You’re awake, yet you feel sluggish. In March, Active inventory rose again to (51). Still a reasonable number considering the breadth of the price range, but an increase is still an increase. There were (10) Listings in Pending which is (1) less than in February. The best indicator of a sluggish market? Only (1) home went under contract in the last 10-days. The most concerning results though, is that not only did just (5) homes Close in March, the average Price Per Square Foot dropped to just $117. An indication, that Buyers are only “bargain shopping”. All combined, this would foretell a slowing market. However, I don’t believe that is the situation. I’m confident this was an aberration and the market is merely beginning to “wake-up” and that April will be much more positive.
Weston Lakes
Fulbrook:
On the face of it, March was a good month for Fulbrook. Active inventory remained constant and showings are beginning to pick up. However, this is not the full story. All the Active Listings have been on the market too long and no Listings Closed in March. Sellers are anxious and need to move on, and currently, there is only one person responsible for enabling them to do so. Thus, I have to confess, that person is me. There is no hiding. Of the (5) Active Listings, all are mine. Our mission is to attract Buyers and I recognize there are not enough to meet supply. There are some positive results though. Of the (2) Listings in Pending Status, (1) is ours and the other we represented the Buyer. However, this is not rewarding news for those Sellers that are still in need of selling their home today. So, I invite Buyers to come visit these extraordinary homes!
Fulbrook On Fulshear Creek:
February had mixed, yet reasonably acceptable results. March trumped that with good marks across the board. Active inventory dropped significantly from (37) to (29). Hurray! There were (10) Listing in Pending Status. So, that was really good news. And, there were (4) homes that Sold; and they did so at a rewarding average Sales Price of $452,043 and at $128 Per Square Foot. The concern remains that the vast majority of the activity was from New Homes. To clear the books of year-end inventory, Builders slashed prices up to $70,000. Uggggh! However, I anticipate that their aggressive discounting won’t continue. That means Buyers should act now, and it also means the Resales won’t have as much fierce competition.
Cross Creek Ranch:
Lots of good news to share for March. Although, Active Listings rose by (3) to a total (110), for the size of CCR, that is a reasonable level. The best news? There were (58) Listings in Pending Status. That is a dramatic increase of (20), or 52%, over February. That is impressive and a definitive sign of an improving market. In addition, there were (22) homes that Sold, which was about the same as February. This will obviously change for the better in April. The New Homes are always an underlying consideration though. As insight, In March, the New Homes comprised 53% of the Active Listings and they also accounted for (54%) of those that Closed. This could be construed as actually good news, because it means the Resales went toe-to-toe with the New and nearly equaled their results. If this was a boxing match, the ref would call it a draw.
Fulshear Run:
This community continues to do well month-after-month. The Active inventory remained steady at just (8). Of these, (5) are under construction. So, very little completed inventory for Buyers to choose and that affects the velocity of sales. There are also (3) homes in Pending Status. One Listing Sold and it was a Resale and did so at an impressive Sales Price of $815,000 and at $185 per square foot. In short, another good month.
Summary
Spring is an often used metaphor to symbolize “new beginnings”. So, since it is actually the beginning of Spring, I thought it only appropriate to use this since the market is beginning to “bloom” as well. At least I believe so. The stats and trend lines are factual indicators, yet they don’t fully capture the “feel” that is omnipresent and which looms over the market. The leading factor for an improving market is Buyer confidence. It occurs when Buyers are willing to come out of winter hibernation (couldn’t resist another metaphor) and are feeling good about moving. There is a sense, not just mine, but most Agents are beginning to feel a renewed positive atmosphere taking place. Well see what happens in the next months. Yet, momentum builds very fast, just as a ball picks up speed down an incline (another metaphor) and not only gathers more speed, it is also hard to stop. So, we’ll see next month if Spring really has sprung and if Buyers begin to “move”…
Check out last month’s market update
here
